Sunday, October 30, 2011

Dealing With Sea Level Rise Skepticism


William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions
wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com


Miami-Dade County embraces science-based sea level projections.


Ecologists use the term “shifting baseline” to call attention to a tendency in people to discount the magnitude of change occurring in ecosystems. In this context, a “baseline” is the conditions people use as a point of reference in assessing the degree of change. Daniel Pauly first used the term in 1995 to discuss problems fisheries managers face in estimating the target size of a fish stock that will be sustainable. Coastal managers face a similar problem in setting goals that will ensure the future sustainability of coastal communities and coastal ecosystems faced with climate change and accelerated sea level rise.

The source of the shifting baselines problem with fisheries is that there has not been a clear way for scientists to estimate how large fish stocks were before being reduced by wholesale exploitation. Pauly cites examples counter examples from astronomy and oceanography where the interpretation of historical records, often centuries old, provide an objective measure of long-term changes. By contrast, “each generation of fisheries scientists accepts as a baseline the stock size and species composition that occurred at the beginning of their careers, and uses this to evaluate changes.” The result is a general tendency for scientists to discount the magnitude of change that has occurred in fish populations over a period of several generations.

Coastal scientists and managers must deal with a similar tendency to discount the magnitude of future change in coastal ecosystems as the result of climate change and sea level rise. It is already difficult enough simply to predict how coastal ecosystems will evolve in response to global climate change, higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the air and in the water, and accelerated rates of sea level rise. And this gets layered on top of the politically-charged question of whether or not global climate change is occurring in the way that science says.

Aside from these sources of uncertainty, the magnitude of change anticipated from accelerated sea level rise in vulnerable areas of the coast itself invites disbelief. For example, county governments in South Florida now accept that a 2 foot rise in sea level over the next 50 years is well within the realm of possibility. This translates into inland migration of the coast at rates of 1000s of feet per year in the low-lying region south of Miami. In similarly vulnerable areas of North Carolina, towns and county officials are resisting efforts by the state to spur them to take actions to defend against rising sea level.

Personal experience, or the lack of it, lies at the heart of the tendency to discount change. The objective analysis and predictions that coastal science can offer will always be, for most people, a poor substitute for experience. But, this is the best that can be offered for now, at least until the passage of time provides a store of experience for us to learn from. Session SCI-082 will hear presentations from specialists in a number of sea-level related topics, including experts on satellite records, glaciers and ice sheets, and coastal marshes. There will be a summary of sea level issues at the beginning of the session and an open discussion at the end.

CERF Session SCI-082: “Sea-level Change: Patterns, Processes and Impacts”
Monday afternoon
Moderators Thomas M. Cronin USGS, Torbjorn Tornqvist Tulane University

“Sea-level rise is among the most important societal issues related to climate change, yet it is also one of the most misunderstood in both scientific and public circles. This session would draw on experts in glaciology, oceanography, geology, geomorphology, climate modeling, coastal ecosystems, and coastal management with the goal of providing a realistic, state-of-the-art assessment of what we know and don't know about sea-level change. Potential topics include ice dynamics, rates of sea-level rise during past and present climatic warming, vulnerable coastal systems, non-eustatic processes (isostatic adjustment, subsidence, sediment flux, etc) and regional sea-level changes.”


This post relates to Topic 4: Baseline change to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.


Reference
SoutheastFlorida Regional Climate Change Compact Counties, 2011.  A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida. Report prepared by the Technical Ad Hoc Work Group, April 2011.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

The Economic Value of Coasts & Estuaries

From the Executive Summary of The Economic and Market Value of Coasts and Estuaries: What's At Stake? by Linwood Pendleton

"Our nation was built from the coast. Americans, like people around the world, are drawn to the coast because of its beauty, productivity, and because our coasts are gateways to the world. The coast nurtures our frontier spirit, our need for outdoor recreation, and the constant American appetite for sweeping ocean views and quiet bayfront vistas. Coasts, coastal oceans, and estuaries are essential to ocean fisheries and aquaculture. Coasts and their waters also generate oxygen, sequester carbon dioxide, and provide habitat to plants and animals both marine and terrestrial."

A copy of this report is available here: http://www.estuaries.org/the-economic-value-of-coasts-a-estuaries.html

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions to be discussed during theSynthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

Friday, October 28, 2011

“CERF the Turf” 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk

Be sure to pack your running shoes when you go to Daytona Beach and pre-register for the 2011 CERF the TURF 5k run/walk!



  “CERF the Turf” 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk
  Wednesday, 9 November, 7:00 – 8:30 am,
 Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort (100 North Atlantic Ave)








Hilton Clocktower, photo credit: Ally Garza

Assemble at Hilton Clocktower on the beach beginning at 6:30 am

 CERF is hosting a 5K (3.1 mile) up-and-back Fun Run/Walk along the beach on Wednesday morning at the Hilton Oceanfront Hotel at 7:00 am. Pre-registration is encouraged.  All paid participants will get a unique keepsake and water. 
Prizes will be awarded for the first place finishers from each Affiliate Society and the first three male and female finishers in each of four categories:  Zoea (up to age 29), Megalopae (30-39), Juveniles (40-49), and Adults (50+).


   ++++ Only $20! ++++
   ++++ Great prizes! ++++
   ++++ Watch the sun rise over the Atlantic Ocean! ++++
   ++++  Burn some energy before sitting in meetings all day! ++++

Pre-Registration online until 6 November:
To pre-register for the 5k with a personal credit card, you may use your registration ID from your original conference registration confirmation and sign up for the run at:
https://www.sgmeet.com/cerf2011/start_process.asp (select "Conference Registration" and work through the forms)
If you have any problems, please contact the Schneider Group directly and Lysia can help you.  Phone is: 254.776.3550.

On-Site Registration and Packet pick up: Packet pick up and on-site registration will take place in the Conference Registration area at the Ocean Center.  There will be only a few, limited opportunities for on-site registration and race packet
pick-up, so please make note of these times:

  Monday  November 7, 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm (during the lunch break)
  Monday  November 7,  5:00 pm - 6:00 pm (immediately after the Plenary
  Sessions)

  Tuesday November 8, 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm (during the lunch break)
  Tuesday November 8,  5:00 pm - 6:00 pm (immediately after the Plenary
  Sessions)


  THERE WILL BE NO REGISTRATION OR PACKET PICK-UP ON WEDNESDAY, THE
  MORNING OF THE RACE!

If you have any questions or would like to volunteer at packet pick-up or the morning of the race, just ask.

Hope to see you there!
Janet Nestlerode, CERF Member at Large and CERF 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk Chair. nestlerode.janet@epa.gov

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Synthesis Topic 1: Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Mike Reiter, Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Bethune-Cookman University

One of the realizations arising from our past efforts in resource management has been that many of our major environmental issues are necessarily multidimensional. Attempts to address them from only one or two disciplinary perspectives provide diminishing returns, a condition that is exacerbated as the impact of human activities on ecosystems continues to grow. This realization has driven efforts to develop new approaches to our environmental issues that build on the concepts of ecosystem based management (EBM) and integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) in order to provide a broader, more inclusive view of the problem and its associated linkages and connections.

Dealing With Wicked Problems 
In a way, we are starting to see environmental issues, including many of our most pressing marine and coastal problems, as what Rittel and Webber (1973) referred to as “wicked problems”. Wicked problems have particular characteristics, among them:
  • A wicked problem continually changes, the information needed to understand it depends upon the idea chosen for solving it, and there is no one “fully correct” explanation of either the problem or the solution. Solutions depend on explanations, which are both stakeholder dependent and of the “better or worse” variety: we stop when we’ve “done what we can” or when it’s “good enough”, or possibly when we’ve run out of resources.
  • Wicked problems are situation- and location-dependent: the solution of one wicked problem can’t be counted on to fit all similar-appearing problems.
  • There are no criteria that will ensure that all potential solutions to a wicked problem have been identified and considered, and there is no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem that will ensure that no unintended consequences will arise.
  • There are linked scales of wicked problems: every wicked problem can be considered a symptom of another, usually itself wicked, problem. This makes for many potential interconnected causal levels that need to be considered (and possibly managed) at the same time, in the sense of panarchy theory or the Dutch School of transition management.
  • The manager has no right to be wrong, as the goal is to improve some (in this case, environmental) aspect of the world and/or people’s lives, making managers liable for the consequences of their choices despite the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the task.

That last point can run head-first into the mentality of resource managers who were trained in one of the more traditional scientific disciplines where problems were more clearly defined and stable, had expected end points that could be objectively evaluated, and allowed for negative results as a means of reaching positive outcomes that could be applied to other similar problems. Unfortunately, given the numerous environmental issues we must deal with and the likely consequences of “doing nothing” (which any resource manager knows is itself a resource management decision to allow the current situation to continue), complexity and interconnectivity do not represent, in and of themselves, an excuse for not attempting to “do what we can”.

Different Approaches to IEA 
EBM has been developing over the years in response to the perceived need for management approaches that can handle multidimensional, interconnected environmental issues (particularly where human activities are involved), and IEA has been developing to address the need for methods that can provide the multidimensional information necessary for EBM. Given the characteristics of wicked problems, it is no surprise that there is no one thing called IEA (indeed, there isn’t one term for IEA, with many agencies and authors providing variations on terminology or approach that are functional for their purposes).

To give at least one workable example: overall, a good general description of an IEA is the NOAA description; a formal synthesis and quantitative analysis of information on relevant natural and socioeconomic factors in relation to specified ecosystem management goals (see Levin et al 2008). These approaches often involve conceptual modeling as a means of enabling the combination of scientific and social information in one process, communicating between disciplines, and/or conveying information to the public (see, for example, Reiter et al 2006, Cox et al 2004, Gentile et al 2001, Cloern 2001), or GIS and remote sensing as a means of assessing different types of data over large spatial scales or for linking to conceptual model use (see, for example, Mitra 2011, Reiter et al 2009, Burke and Maidens 2004).


Figure 1. A proposed framework for a fully integrated environmental assessment (from Cormier and Suter 2008).

Cormier and Suter (2008) argued that no existing framework explicitly included all types of environmental assessments, which could be a problem since practitioners of the various partial approaches may not recognize the linkages between the different types of assessment or the value of collaboration to achieve the common goal of providing scientific input for decision making. They also noted that none of the existing environmental risk assessment frameworks focused on the ultimate goal of making decisions concerning the problem to be addressed. To begin to address this gap, they laid out a logical pathway for a fully integrated assessment that moves from Condition Assessment (“Is there a problem?”) to Causal Pathway Assessment (“What caused the problem?”), Predictive Assessment (“What are the consequences of solving the problem?”), and Outcome Assessment (“Did the solution work?”: Fig. 1). They argued that this approach would allow for the recognition of the linkages between the different types of assessments and would provide a potential way for decision makers and stakeholders to integrate the different types of assessment required to address an environmental concern. While giving several examples of what they consider to be integrated assessments (or close), Cormier and Suter (2008) did not offer a standardized methodology for moving from issue to action based on their logic model. Efforts such as the development of the Integrated Assessment and Ecosystem Management Protocol (IAEMP; Fig. 2) are attempting to provide a means of completing IEA logic pathways such as the Cormier and Suter framework within a stakeholder-based, adaptive decision making process that can be applied to a wide range of locations and circumstances (Reiter et al in revision).


Figure 2. Mapping the sections of the IAEMP onto the framework for a fully integrated environmental assessment (Reiter et al in revision). Assessment sections are based on Cormier and Suter (2008).
Involving the Public 
One of the often difficult, even problematic, aspects of EBM and IEA is the incorporation of the public into management decisions. Aldo Leopold arguably started the movement toward this position decades ago when he stressed in his writings that human intervention in the surrounding environment was a necessary consequence of our existence (as it was for all organisms), and as such everyone had a stake in both the health of ecosystems and the need to develop an appreciation for them if we were to retain supportive habitats.

In addition, we’ve also come to notice the difficulty in implementing a management plan, however well-designed or well-intentioned, when the public is not in favor of it. Scientists sometimes have difficulty with this reality as well, since they are trained to regard management decisions as scientific outcomes of a specific academic analysis. Ironically, regulators can have similar difficulties when they view management decisions as the result of political and economic forces that interact to determine the outcome of a regulatory “bargaining session”.

As a result, there is a need for using sound science to inform the public as well as appropriate management entities, particularly since most decisions affecting land use in coastal ecosystems are made at the local or regional level (Scott et al 2006). This adds even further importance to the development of new tools and technologies that can help us understand an issue by combining information from numerous perspectives, while at the same time allowing for more effective stakeholder and public involvement. Sound science should be rooted in established principles of EBM which promote environmental sustainability, conservation, and protection identified as priorities by society.


Basis for Wise Decisions
If ultimate decision making on environmental issues conforms to these fundamental principles of sustainability, then wise decisions can be made concerning present and future environmental issues with minimal reliance on unsustainable subsidies (and their associated costs). For example, beach renourishment is a subsidy generally justified through cost-benefit analysis of economic, cultural, and/or ecological returns. However, considering predictions of future sea level rise using global climate models, the need for an increasing frequency of renourishment may require a shift in resource priorities to a different policy based on more sustainable principles. This is just one example of a “wicked problem”, one that is best addressed through an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment process that uses “sound science” in a holistic, consensus-based decision making process.

For more information on IEA applied to coastal ecosystems check out the following sessions at CERF 2011:
Tuesday, November 8, 2011:
1:30-3PM, SCI-039, Integrated Assessments of Valued Components and Services in Estuarine Ecosystems
3:30-5PM, Tuesday Synthesis Session, Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: the Present State-of-the-Art

References
Burke, L., and J. Maidens. 2004. Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean. World Resources Institute, Washington DC.
Cormier, S., and G. W. Suter II. 2008. A framework for fully integrating environmental assessment. Environmental Management 42:543-556
Cox, M. E., R. Johnstone, and J. Robinson. 2004. Assessing the social and economic impacts of changes in coastal systems. In: Mowlaei, M. J., A. Rose, J. Lamborn. Environmental Sustainability through Multidisciplinary Integration. Proc. 7th Annual Environmental Research Conference, Marysville, Victoria, pp 68-77. 1-4 December, 2003.
Gentile, J. H., M. A. Harwell, W. Cropper, Jr., C. C. Harwell, D. DeAngelis, S. Davis, J. C. Ogden, and D. Lirman. 2001. Ecological Conceptual Models: A Framework and Case Study on Ecosystem Management for South Florida Sustainability. Science of the Total Environment. 274(1-3):231-253, 2001.
Levin, P. S., M. J. Fogarty, G. C. Matlock, and M. Ernst. 2008. Integrated ecosystem assessments. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo NMFS-NWFSC-92, 20 pp.
Mitra, D. 2011. Remotes sensing and GIS for coastal zone management: Indian experience. In: Anbazhagan, S., S. Subramanian, and X. Yang eds. Geoinformatics in Applied Geomorphology. CRC Press, Boca Raton FL.
Reiter, M. A., J. H. Gentile, M. A. Harwell, J. Barko, and G. Scott. In revision. An Integrated Assessment and Ecosystem Management Framework for Informing Environmental Decisions. Environmental Management.
Reiter, M. A., M. Saintil, Z. Yang, and D. Pokrajac. 2009. Derivation of a GIS-based watershed-scale conceptual model for the St. Jones River Delaware from habitat-scale conceptual models. J. Environ. Manag. 90:3253-3265.
Reiter, M. A., G. R. Parsons, R. W. Scarborough, C. Fan, and S. M. Thur. 2006. An interdisciplinary conceptual metamodel for the St. Jones River watershed, Delaware: Development, results, and implications. J. Environ. Monit. Restor. 2:38-50.
Rittel, H., and M. Webber. 1973. Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences 4:155-169. Scott, G. I., A. F. Holland, and P. A. Sandifer. 2006. Managing Coastal Urbanization and Development in the 21st Century: The Need for a New Paradigm. In: G. Kleppel et al, eds. “Changing Land Use Patterns in the Coastal Zone: Managing Environmental Quality in Rapidly Developing Regions”. Van Norstam press, NYC, NY: pp. 285 –299. 

A bibliography of additional readings on IEA can be downloaded from here:

Notes and Comments on System Complexity

This blog post reviews some interesting and useful ideas for describing the complexity of systems - mechanical, ecological, and social.

Link: http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2011/10/social-complexity.html

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions and Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during theSynthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Gulf of Mexico Task Force Formulates Plan for Coastal Science


William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions
wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com





Early in October, the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force released a preliminary version of its strategy for ecosystem restoration in the Gulf of Mexico. Its purpose is to coordinate coastal management by agencies in the five Gulf Coast states and the federal government. The strategy builds on existing research and ecosystem restoration plans and current restoration activities in the region to set a direction for future work. If adopted, the science needs identified by the Task force will set the direction for coastal and estuarine science for years to come.

President Obama created the Task Force one year ago in direct response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico but also in recognition of long-term threats to ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. Since that time, the Task Force has toured the Gulf gathering information on experience with ecosystem restoration and hearing the concerns of stakeholders and the public. This report completes the Task Force’s initial mandate, but it is clear that the intent is for this group, or something like it, to continue to play the role of coordinating coastal management and research in the Gulf into the foreseeable future.

The Task Force strategy calls for ecosystem-based adaptive management with a robust science program as its foundation. Three key elements make up the science program:
  • a comprehensive “watershed to the Gulf” monitoring program, 
  • a regional modeling network, and 
  • research to increase understanding, refine modeling and monitoring and ultimately improve management actions. 

The monitoring program will establish a baseline for reference and measure future changes in the Gulf coast ecosystem. This information is needed to provide an ongoing assessment of the efficacy of management actions. The strategy identifies 31 broad objectives for monitoring in the following categories: physical, biological, chemical, habitat, and soci-economic.

Models are needed to evaluate the response of coastal ecosystems to planned management actions, determine the basic inputs of water, sediment, and nutrients required to sustain the ecosystem, and assess the ecosystem’s resilience to various drivers of change, like climate change and sea level rise. The strategy identifies 14 modeling needs in the categories of predictions and adaptive management and physical and biological models.

The Task Force’s vision for future coastal research in the Gulf recognizes the need for basic, hypothesis-directed research that is “focused on clearly meeting the Strategy needs.” The strategy identifies 42 research needs to support restoration organized by the following categories: resilience, natural processes, risk, ecosystem services, assessment, restoration and hydrologic modification, and climate.

The Task Force’s strategy document is out now for public comment before it will be finalized sometime in the coming months. It’s too early for coastal and estuarine scientists to begin sharpening their pencils and drafting research proposals. The Gulf of Mexico Regional Ecosystem Research Strategy represents a step forward toward the goal of implementing coastal management on a regional scale in the US. Therefore, this is a sign of things to come.

This post relates to Topic 4: Baseline change  Topic 5: Dynamic ecosystems, and Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.


Thursday, October 20, 2011

NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program


William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions
wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

NOAA is implementing integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) for 8 regional ecosystems in US coastal waters.  IEAs provide a decision-support system that uses diverse data and ecosystem models to forecast future conditions; evaluates alternative management scenarios; and assesses economic and ecological tradeoffs to guide decisions, implement, and evaluate management actions relative to the specified objectives. A primary objective of NOAA’s IEA approach is to make comprehensive information available to inform management decisions. This is done by predicting the outcome of management choices through the described iterative step-wise process that aims to:

  • assess existing (baseline) ecosystem conditions
  • assess activities or elements in an ecosystem that can stress the ecosystem
  • predict the status of the ecosystem under stress if no management action is taken
  • evaluate the status of the ecosystem under stress under different management scenarios, and
  • evaluate the success of management actions in achieving the desired target conditions.
This post relates to Topic 1: Integrated ecosystem assessment to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.


Reference
For more information visit the website for NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program.