Dealing With Sea Level Rise Skepticism

William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions

wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

Miami-Dade County embraces science-based sea level projections.

Ecologists use the term “shifting baseline” to call attention to a tendency in people to discount the magnitude of change occurring in ecosystems. In this context, a “baseline” is the conditions people use as a point of reference in assessing the degree of change. Daniel Pauly first used the term in 1995 to discuss problems fisheries managers face in estimating the target size of a fish stock that will be sustainable. Coastal managers face a similar problem in setting goals that will ensure the future sustainability of coastal communities and coastal ecosystems faced with climate change and accelerated sea level rise.

The source of the shifting baselines problem with fisheries is that there has not been a clear way for scientists to estimate how large fish stocks were before being reduced by wholesale exploitation. Pauly cites examples counter examples from astronomy and oceanography where the interpretation of historical records, often centuries old, provide an objective measure of long-term changes. By contrast, “each generation of fisheries scientists accepts as a baseline the stock size and species composition that occurred at the beginning of their careers, and uses this to evaluate changes.” The result is a general tendency for scientists to discount the magnitude of change that has occurred in fish populations over a period of several generations.

Coastal scientists and managers must deal with a similar tendency to discount the magnitude of future change in coastal ecosystems as the result of climate change and sea level rise. It is already difficult enough simply to predict how coastal ecosystems will evolve in response to global climate change, higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the air and in the water, and accelerated rates of sea level rise. And this gets layered on top of the politically-charged question of whether or not global climate change is occurring in the way that science says.

Aside from these sources of uncertainty, the magnitude of change anticipated from accelerated sea level rise in vulnerable areas of the coast itself invites disbelief. For example, county governments in South Florida now accept that a 2 foot rise in sea level over the next 50 years is well within the realm of possibility. This translates into inland migration of the coast at rates of 1000s of feet per year in the low-lying region south of Miami. In similarly vulnerable areas of North Carolina, towns and county officials are resisting efforts by the state to spur them to take actions to defend against rising sea level.

Personal experience, or the lack of it, lies at the heart of the tendency to discount change. The objective analysis and predictions that coastal science can offer will always be, for most people, a poor substitute for experience. But, this is the best that can be offered for now, at least until the passage of time provides a store of experience for us to learn from. Session SCI-082 will hear presentations from specialists in a number of sea-level related topics, including experts on satellite records, glaciers and ice sheets, and coastal marshes. There will be a summary of sea level issues at the beginning of the session and an open discussion at the end.

CERF Session SCI-082: “Sea-level Change: Patterns, Processes and Impacts”
Monday afternoon
Moderators Thomas M. Cronin USGS, Torbjorn Tornqvist Tulane University

“Sea-level rise is among the most important societal issues related to climate change, yet it is also one of the most misunderstood in both scientific and public circles. This session would draw on experts in glaciology, oceanography, geology, geomorphology, climate modeling, coastal ecosystems, and coastal management with the goal of providing a realistic, state-of-the-art assessment of what we know and don't know about sea-level change. Potential topics include ice dynamics, rates of sea-level rise during past and present climatic warming, vulnerable coastal systems, non-eustatic processes (isostatic adjustment, subsidence, sediment flux, etc) and regional sea-level changes.”

This post relates to Topic 4: Baseline change to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.


Reference
SoutheastFlorida Regional Climate Change Compact Counties, 2011.  A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida. Report prepared by the Technical Ad Hoc Work Group, April 2011.

The Economic Value of Coasts & Estuaries

From the Executive Summary of The Economic and Market Value of Coasts and Estuaries: What's At Stake? by Linwood Pendleton

"Our nation was built from the coast. Americans, like people around the world, are drawn to the coast because of its beauty, productivity, and because our coasts are gateways to the world. The coast nurtures our frontier spirit, our need for outdoor recreation, and the constant American appetite for sweeping ocean views and quiet bayfront vistas. Coasts, coastal oceans, and estuaries are essential to ocean fisheries and aquaculture. Coasts and their waters also generate oxygen, sequester carbon dioxide, and provide habitat to plants and animals both marine and terrestrial."

A copy of this report is available here: http://www.estuaries.org/the-economic-value-of-coasts-a-estuaries.html

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions to be discussed during theSynthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

“CERF the Turf” 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk

Be sure to pack your running shoes when you go to Daytona Beach and pre-register for the 2011 CERF the TURF 5k run/walk!

  “CERF the Turf” 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk
  Wednesday, 9 November, 7:00 – 8:30 am,
 Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort (100 North Atlantic Ave)

Hilton Clocktower, photo credit: Ally Garza

Assemble at Hilton Clocktower on the beach beginning at 6:30 am

 CERF is hosting a 5K (3.1 mile) up-and-back Fun Run/Walk along the beach on Wednesday morning at the Hilton Oceanfront Hotel at 7:00 am. Pre-registration is encouraged.  All paid participants will get a unique keepsake and water. 

Prizes will be awarded for the first place finishers from each Affiliate Society and the first three male and female finishers in each of four categories:  Zoea (up to age 29), Megalopae (30-39), Juveniles (40-49), and Adults (50+).

   ++++ Only $20! ++++

   ++++ Great prizes! ++++

   ++++ Watch the sun rise over the Atlantic Ocean! ++++

   ++++  Burn some energy before sitting in meetings all day! ++++

Pre-Registration online until 6 November:
To pre-register for the 5k with a personal credit card, you may use your registration ID from your original conference registration confirmation and sign up for the run at:
https://www.sgmeet.com/cerf2011/start_process.asp (select "Conference Registration" and work through the forms)
If you have any problems, please contact the Schneider Group directly and Lysia can help you.  Phone is: 254.776.3550.

On-Site Registration and Packet pick up: Packet pick up and on-site registration will take place in the Conference Registration area at the Ocean Center.  There will be only a few, limited opportunities for on-site registration and race packet
pick-up, so please make note of these times:

  Monday  November 7, 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm (during the lunch break)
  Monday  November 7,  5:00 pm - 6:00 pm (immediately after the Plenary
  Sessions)

  Tuesday November 8, 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm (during the lunch break)
  Tuesday November 8,  5:00 pm - 6:00 pm (immediately after the Plenary
  Sessions)

  THERE WILL BE NO REGISTRATION OR PACKET PICK-UP ON WEDNESDAY, THE
  MORNING OF THE RACE!

If you have any questions or would like to volunteer at packet pick-up or the morning of the race, just ask.

Hope to see you there!
Janet Nestlerode, CERF Member at Large and CERF 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk Chair. nestlerode.janet@epa.gov

Synthesis Topic 1: Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Mike Reiter, Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Bethune-Cookman University

One of the realizations arising from our past efforts in resource management has been that many of our major environmental issues are necessarily multidimensional. Attempts to address them from only one or two disciplinary perspectives provide diminishing returns, a condition that is exacerbated as the impact of human activities on ecosystems continues to grow. This realization has driven efforts to develop new approaches to our environmental issues that build on the concepts of ecosystem based management (EBM) and integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) in order to provide a broader, more inclusive view of the problem and its associated linkages and connections.

Dealing With Wicked Problems 
In a way, we are starting to see environmental issues, including many of our most pressing marine and coastal problems, as what Rittel and Webber (1973) referred to as “wicked problems”. Wicked problems have particular characteristics, among them:

• A wicked problem continually changes, the information needed to understand it depends upon the idea chosen for solving it, and there is no one “fully correct” explanation of either the problem or the solution. Solutions depend on explanations, which are both stakeholder dependent and of the “better or worse” variety: we stop when we’ve “done what we can” or when it’s “good enough”, or possibly when we’ve run out of resources.
• Wicked problems are situation- and location-dependent: the solution of one wicked problem can’t be counted on to fit all similar-appearing problems.
• There are no criteria that will ensure that all potential solutions to a wicked problem have been identified and considered, and there is no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem that will ensure that no unintended consequences will arise.
• There are linked scales of wicked problems: every wicked problem can be considered a symptom of another, usually itself wicked, problem. This makes for many potential interconnected causal levels that need to be considered (and possibly managed) at the same time, in the sense of panarchy theory or the Dutch School of transition management.
• The manager has no right to be wrong, as the goal is to improve some (in this case, environmental) aspect of the world and/or people’s lives, making managers liable for the consequences of their choices despite the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the task.

That last point can run head-first into the mentality of resource managers who were trained in one of the more traditional scientific disciplines where problems were more clearly defined and stable, had expected end points that could be objectively evaluated, and allowed for negative results as a means of reaching positive outcomes that could be applied to other similar problems. Unfortunately, given the numerous environmental issues we must deal with and the likely consequences of “doing nothing” (which any resource manager knows is itself a resource management decision to allow the current situation to continue), complexity and interconnectivity do not represent, in and of themselves, an excuse for not attempting to “do what we can”.

Different Approaches to IEA 
EBM has been developing over the years in response to the perceived need for management approaches that can handle multidimensional, interconnected environmental issues (particularly where human activities are involved), and IEA has been developing to address the need for methods that can provide the multidimensional information necessary for EBM. Given the characteristics of wicked problems, it is no surprise that there is no one thing called IEA (indeed, there isn’t one term for IEA, with many agencies and authors providing variations on terminology or approach that are functional for their purposes).

To give at least one workable example: overall, a good general description of an IEA is the NOAA description; a formal synthesis and quantitative analysis of information on relevant natural and socioeconomic factors in relation to specified ecosystem management goals (see Levin et al 2008). These approaches often involve conceptual modeling as a means of enabling the combination of scientific and social information in one process, communicating between disciplines, and/or conveying information to the public (see, for example, Reiter et al 2006, Cox et al 2004, Gentile et al 2001, Cloern 2001), or GIS and remote sensing as a means of assessing different types of data over large spatial scales or for linking to conceptual model use (see, for example, Mitra 2011, Reiter et al 2009, Burke and Maidens 2004).

Figure 1. A proposed framework for a fully integrated environmental assessment (from Cormier and Suter 2008).

Cormier and Suter (2008) argued that no existing framework explicitly included all types of environmental assessments, which could be a problem since practitioners of the various partial approaches may not recognize the linkages between the different types of assessment or the value of collaboration to achieve the common goal of providing scientific input for decision making. They also noted that none of the existing environmental risk assessment frameworks focused on the ultimate goal of making decisions concerning the problem to be addressed. To begin to address this gap, they laid out a logical pathway for a fully integrated assessment that moves from Condition Assessment (“Is there a problem?”) to Causal Pathway Assessment (“What caused the problem?”), Predictive Assessment (“What are the consequences of solving the problem?”), and Outcome Assessment (“Did the solution work?”: Fig. 1). They argued that this approach would allow for the recognition of the linkages between the different types of assessments and would provide a potential way for decision makers and stakeholders to integrate the different types of assessment required to address an environmental concern. While giving several examples of what they consider to be integrated assessments (or close), Cormier and Suter (2008) did not offer a standardized methodology for moving from issue to action based on their logic model. Efforts such as the development of the Integrated Assessment and Ecosystem Management Protocol (IAEMP; Fig. 2) are attempting to provide a means of completing IEA logic pathways such as the Cormier and Suter framework within a stakeholder-based, adaptive decision making process that can be applied to a wide range of locations and circumstances (Reiter et al in revision).

Figure 2. Mapping the sections of the IAEMP onto the framework for a fully integrated environmental assessment (Reiter et al in revision). Assessment sections are based on Cormier and Suter (2008).

Involving the Public 
One of the often difficult, even problematic, aspects of EBM and IEA is the incorporation of the public into management decisions. Aldo Leopold arguably started the movement toward this position decades ago when he stressed in his writings that human intervention in the surrounding environment was a necessary consequence of our existence (as it was for all organisms), and as such everyone had a stake in both the health of ecosystems and the need to develop an appreciation for them if we were to retain supportive habitats.

In addition, we’ve also come to notice the difficulty in implementing a management plan, however well-designed or well-intentioned, when the public is not in favor of it. Scientists sometimes have difficulty with this reality as well, since they are trained to regard management decisions as scientific outcomes of a specific academic analysis. Ironically, regulators can have similar difficulties when they view management decisions as the result of political and economic forces that interact to determine the outcome of a regulatory “bargaining session”.

As a result, there is a need for using sound science to inform the public as well as appropriate management entities, particularly since most decisions affecting land use in coastal ecosystems are made at the local or regional level (Scott et al 2006). This adds even further importance to the development of new tools and technologies that can help us understand an issue by combining information from numerous perspectives, while at the same time allowing for more effective stakeholder and public involvement. Sound science should be rooted in established principles of EBM which promote environmental sustainability, conservation, and protection identified as priorities by society.

Basis for Wise Decisions

If ultimate decision making on environmental issues conforms to these fundamental principles of sustainability, then wise decisions can be made concerning present and future environmental issues with minimal reliance on unsustainable subsidies (and their associated costs). For example, beach renourishment is a subsidy generally justified through cost-benefit analysis of economic, cultural, and/or ecological returns. However, considering predictions of future sea level rise using global climate models, the need for an increasing frequency of renourishment may require a shift in resource priorities to a different policy based on more sustainable principles. This is just one example of a “wicked problem”, one that is best addressed through an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment process that uses “sound science” in a holistic, consensus-based decision making process.

For more information on IEA applied to coastal ecosystems check out the following sessions at CERF 2011:
Tuesday, November 8, 2011:
1:30-3PM, SCI-039, Integrated Assessments of Valued Components and Services in Estuarine Ecosystems
3:30-5PM, Tuesday Synthesis Session, Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: the Present State-of-the-Art

References
Burke, L., and J. Maidens. 2004. Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean. World Resources Institute, Washington DC.
Cormier, S., and G. W. Suter II. 2008. A framework for fully integrating environmental assessment. Environmental Management 42:543-556
Cox, M. E., R. Johnstone, and J. Robinson. 2004. Assessing the social and economic impacts of changes in coastal systems. In: Mowlaei, M. J., A. Rose, J. Lamborn. Environmental Sustainability through Multidisciplinary Integration. Proc. 7th Annual Environmental Research Conference, Marysville, Victoria, pp 68-77. 1-4 December, 2003.
Gentile, J. H., M. A. Harwell, W. Cropper, Jr., C. C. Harwell, D. DeAngelis, S. Davis, J. C. Ogden, and D. Lirman. 2001. Ecological Conceptual Models: A Framework and Case Study on Ecosystem Management for South Florida Sustainability. Science of the Total Environment. 274(1-3):231-253, 2001.
Levin, P. S., M. J. Fogarty, G. C. Matlock, and M. Ernst. 2008. Integrated ecosystem assessments. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo NMFS-NWFSC-92, 20 pp.
Mitra, D. 2011. Remotes sensing and GIS for coastal zone management: Indian experience. In: Anbazhagan, S., S. Subramanian, and X. Yang eds. Geoinformatics in Applied Geomorphology. CRC Press, Boca Raton FL.
Reiter, M. A., J. H. Gentile, M. A. Harwell, J. Barko, and G. Scott. In revision. An Integrated Assessment and Ecosystem Management Framework for Informing Environmental Decisions. Environmental Management.
Reiter, M. A., M. Saintil, Z. Yang, and D. Pokrajac. 2009. Derivation of a GIS-based watershed-scale conceptual model for the St. Jones River Delaware from habitat-scale conceptual models. J. Environ. Manag. 90:3253-3265.
Reiter, M. A., G. R. Parsons, R. W. Scarborough, C. Fan, and S. M. Thur. 2006. An interdisciplinary conceptual metamodel for the St. Jones River watershed, Delaware: Development, results, and implications. J. Environ. Monit. Restor. 2:38-50.
Rittel, H., and M. Webber. 1973. Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences 4:155-169. Scott, G. I., A. F. Holland, and P. A. Sandifer. 2006. Managing Coastal Urbanization and Development in the 21st Century: The Need for a New Paradigm. In: G. Kleppel et al, eds. “Changing Land Use Patterns in the Coastal Zone: Managing Environmental Quality in Rapidly Developing Regions”. Van Norstam press, NYC, NY: pp. 285 –299. 

A bibliography of additional readings on IEA can be downloaded from here:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/16903544/CERF%20IEA%20References%20102511.doc

Notes and Comments on System Complexity

This blog post reviews some interesting and useful ideas for describing the complexity of systems - mechanical, ecological, and social.

Link: http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2011/10/social-complexity.html

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions and Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during theSynthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

Gulf of Mexico Task Force Formulates Plan for Coastal Science

William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions

wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

Early in October, the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force released a preliminary version of its strategy for ecosystem restoration in the Gulf of Mexico. Its purpose is to coordinate coastal management by agencies in the five Gulf Coast states and the federal government. The strategy builds on existing research and ecosystem restoration plans and current restoration activities in the region to set a direction for future work. If adopted, the science needs identified by the Task force will set the direction for coastal and estuarine science for years to come.

President Obama created the Task Force one year ago in direct response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico but also in recognition of long-term threats to ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. Since that time, the Task Force has toured the Gulf gathering information on experience with ecosystem restoration and hearing the concerns of stakeholders and the public. This report completes the Task Force’s initial mandate, but it is clear that the intent is for this group, or something like it, to continue to play the role of coordinating coastal management and research in the Gulf into the foreseeable future.

The Task Force strategy calls for ecosystem-based adaptive management with a robust science program as its foundation. Three key elements make up the science program:

• a comprehensive “watershed to the Gulf” monitoring program, 
• a regional modeling network, and 
• research to increase understanding, refine modeling and monitoring and ultimately improve management actions. 

The monitoring program will establish a baseline for reference and measure future changes in the Gulf coast ecosystem. This information is needed to provide an ongoing assessment of the efficacy of management actions. The strategy identifies 31 broad objectives for monitoring in the following categories: physical, biological, chemical, habitat, and soci-economic.

Models are needed to evaluate the response of coastal ecosystems to planned management actions, determine the basic inputs of water, sediment, and nutrients required to sustain the ecosystem, and assess the ecosystem’s resilience to various drivers of change, like climate change and sea level rise. The strategy identifies 14 modeling needs in the categories of predictions and adaptive management and physical and biological models.

The Task Force’s vision for future coastal research in the Gulf recognizes the need for basic, hypothesis-directed research that is “focused on clearly meeting the Strategy needs.” The strategy identifies 42 research needs to support restoration organized by the following categories: resilience, natural processes, risk, ecosystem services, assessment, restoration and hydrologic modification, and climate.

The Task Force’s strategy document is out now for public comment before it will be finalized sometime in the coming months. It’s too early for coastal and estuarine scientists to begin sharpening their pencils and drafting research proposals. The Gulf of Mexico Regional Ecosystem Research Strategy represents a step forward toward the goal of implementing coastal management on a regional scale in the US. Therefore, this is a sign of things to come.

This post relates to Topic 4: Baseline change  Topic 5: Dynamic ecosystems, and Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

Download a copy of the strategy document here: http://www.epa.gov/gulfcoasttaskforce/pdfs/GCERTF-Preliminary-Strategy_10052011_forPDF_10-17_changesacc_b.pdf.

NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program

William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions

wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

NOAA is implementing integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) for 8 regional ecosystems in US coastal waters.  IEAs provide a decision-support system that uses diverse data and ecosystem models to forecast future conditions; evaluates alternative management scenarios; and assesses economic and ecological tradeoffs to guide decisions, implement, and evaluate management actions relative to the specified objectives. A primary objective of NOAA’s IEA approach is to make comprehensive information available to inform management decisions. This is done by predicting the outcome of management choices through the described iterative step-wise process that aims to:

• assess existing (baseline) ecosystem conditions
• assess activities or elements in an ecosystem that can stress the ecosystem
• predict the status of the ecosystem under stress if no management action is taken
• evaluate the status of the ecosystem under stress under different management scenarios, and
• evaluate the success of management actions in achieving the desired target conditions.

This post relates to Topic 1: Integrated ecosystem assessment to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.


Reference
For more information visit the website for NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program.

Media Announcement - “Biggest ever” coastal conference in Daytona Beach, November 6-10, 2011

During the last 40 years, the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation (CERF) has convened a meeting every two years at different coastal communities around the U.S. This year about 1,500 scientists will be coming to Daytona Beach’s Ocean Center during November 6-10, 2011 to participate. The conference will include over 1,100 presentations from scientists, educators, and students that will showcase their study results. New for this conference, and keeping with the theme, will be a community outreach poster session, entitled Science for Community Leaders. The intent is to invite representatives of the surrounding community in order to address topics of their concern. The Museum of Arts and Science is a cosponsor with CERF to organize this session and make connections with local leaders.

If you are interested and want more information, please contact Robert Chamberlain (rchamber@sjrwmd.com), Dr. Linda Walters (UCF, linda.walters@ucf.edu), or Holly Greening (TBEP and conference co-chair, hreening@tbep.org). Or, visit the CERF website at www.erf.org, then follow the link to meetings. To view the conference’s green art, Ocean’s Eleventh Hour by local artist Paul Baliker, go to the CERF website (www.erf.org) and click on the picture.

Background
Estuaries are located where marine water mixes with freshwater. Along with the surrounding wetlands that are usually associated with estuaries, these areas serve as nursery areas for many organism. Locally, the Indian River Lagoon contains a greater diversity of species than any other estuary in the U.S. and supports over a billion dollars in resource-based business activities. Over 75% of Florida’s commercial fish species depend on estuaries during some part of their life. Places like Chesapeake Bay are significantly important in our nation’s history, providing safe harbors, centers for commerce, and valuable resources for the cities that have expanded along their shores. There will be talks at the conference on the Gulf oil spill, as well as potential impacts related to sea level rise.

As an organization, CERF has increasingly focused not only on understanding these nearshore ecosystems, but also provided information necessary to manage human related changes that can influence biodiversity and the sustainability of natural resources. At this year’s conference in Daytona Beach, the theme is “Adapting to Change,” which reflects the realization that human societies are an integral component of nearshore ecosystems and both their futures are interdependent and very dynamic. This conference will explore how understanding and managing these dynamics must also include approaches at regional and global scales. To a greater extent than at previous CERF conferences, this year will include an effort to specifically address society’s economic drivers and related ecosystem responses.

Conference attendees can donate to the Carbon Emissions Offset Fund, which will support an ongoing oyster restoration project in the Mosquito Lagoon (see http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/florida/explore/floridas-oyster-reef-restoration-program.xml ).

CERF 2011 Synthesis Session Moderators and Panelists Selected

William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions

wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...

The Synthesis Sessions are, well, synthesizing nicely.  Eight CERFers have answered the call to help lead the discussion on Tuesday and Thursday. Each session will be staffed by a moderator, and 3 panelists will introduce the topics for discussion.  The topics relate to presentations during the regular sessions on the conference schedule.  

Then, there is you to add to the brew.  Pack up your eye of newt, or just bring along your left over field samples. Plan to come and help to stir things up.

*************************************

Tuesday, 8 November 2011; 3:30 – 5:00pm 

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: the Present State-of-the-Art

This session will examine the IEA process, human dimensions of ecosystems, and lessons learned in management applications.

Moderator: Robert Costanza, University Professor of Sustainability and Director, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University

Topic 1 IEA defined – What is integrated ecosystem assessment and how is it being used in coastal and estuarine ecosystems?

Mike Reiter, Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Bethune-Cookman University

Topic 2 Human dimensions – How can we include humans and the effects of their activities on the coastal and estuarine environment in integrated ecosystem assessments.

Dave Yoskowitz, Endowed Chair for Socio-Economics, Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies

Topic 3 Management applications - What have we learned from past experience of applying science in the management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems.

Stephen Weisberg, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project

Thursday, 10 November 2011; 3:30 – 5:00pm

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: Emerging Challenges 

This session will examine emerging challenges related to baseline change, dynamic ecosystems, and problems facing managers applying an ecosystem approach in the real world.

Moderator: Robert Twilley, Vice President for Research, University of Louisiana at Lafayette

Topic 4 Baseline change – How can we account for the effects of uncontrollable change to drivers, e.g. climate change and rising sea level, in ecosystem assessments and in setting management goals?

Leila Hamdan, Research Microbial Ecologist at US Naval Research Laboratory

Topic 5 Dynamic ecosystems – How can we detect, analyze and forecast change in coastal and estuarine ecosystems?

Denise Reed, Professor in Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New Orleans

Topic 6 Management challenges – How do the problems that face managers in implementing ecosystem management of coasts and estuaries the regional scale affect the way that science is done?

Fred Sklar, Chief Scientist, Everglades Division, South Florida Water Management District

Information from EPA on Coastal Zones and Sea Level Rise

Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Key concerns include sea level rise, land loss, changes in maritime storms and flooding, responses to sea level rise and implications for water resources.  Here is an EPA website on the topic.


This post relates to Topic 4:Baseline Change to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

Special Meeting and Social Function Descriptions

CERF is pleased to invite you to the special meeting and social functions happening during the conference. Please see the descriptions below for more details. There are events for networking, student activities, and just plain fun. You won't want to miss any!

Special Meeting and Social Function Descriptions
OC = Ocean Center

SUNDAY

Student Orientation Meeting “Crash Course in CERFing”

Date and Time: Sunday, 6 November, 4:30 – 5:30 pm

Location: OC - Room 202 AB

New to CERF? Student newcomers and student veterans of CERF meetings are invited to attend this orientation meeting hosted by Amanda Kahn and Leanna Heffner. This is your time to meet and have coffee with other CERF student members and conference attendees, learn to navigate events and get the most out of your CERF conference experience.

Keynote Address and CERF Scientific Awards

Date and Time: Sunday, 6 November, 6:00 – 7:30 pm

Location: OC - Ballroom

Plan to attend to congratulate the winners of the 2011 CERF scientific awards and hear keynote speaker Bob Costanza speak about Solutions for Sustainable Prosperity of Humans and the Rest of Nature in the Coastal Zone.

Presidents’ Welcome Reception

Sponsored by YSI Incorporated

Date and Time: Sunday, 6 November, 8:00 - 10:00 pm

Location: Hilton – Coquina Ballroom

On behalf of the Federation Presidents, we invite you to the Hilton to greet old friends and new at this reception.  The CERF conference begins 40 years – to the day – since the first ERF conference. Celebrate the opening of the 21st biennial conference of the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation and 40 years of C/ERF’s accomplishments of the past and look forward with anticipation to the future. Plan to ring in CERF’s 40^th year with the people who share your enthusiasm for coastal and estuarine ecosystems! All attendees at Sunday’s Opening Reception will receive a coupon redeemable at the bar for a Seabreeze, the Hilton’s signature drink, or a soft drink, whichever is preferred.

MONDAY

CERF Happy Hour

Date and Time: Monday, 7 November, 5:00 – 6:30 pm

Location:  OC - Exhibit Hall

Cash bar and munchies. Check out the posters; visit the exhibitors; rendezvous with friends and colleagues for this evening’s activities.

Affiliate Society Meetings

Date and Time: Monday, 7 November 6:30 – 7:30 pm

Location: OC, Oral Session Rooms

Plan to attend your region’s Affiliate Society Meetings to learn what is happening! See page <###> for meeting locations.

CERF Student Career Networking Event

Date and Time: Monday, 7 November, 7:30 – 9:30 pm

Location: OC - Ballroom

The pizza social and career event is back with your hosts, Leanna Heffner and Amanda Kahn.

ALL undergraduate and graduate students are invited to attend. This event provides students a fantastic and unique opportunity to network with established scientists and recently employed graduates in a fun and casual atmosphere.

Students will have a chance to pick panelists’ brains about topics such as career options, student internships, and employment opportunities. And did we mention FREE pizza and drinks?!

Panelists represent different careers (academia, federal agencies, state agencies, NGOs, consulting, and more!)

TUESDAY

Women in Science Networking Lunch 

Sponsored by Association of National Estuary Programs

(Ticketed event)

Date and Time: Tuesday, 8 November, 12:00 - 1:30 pm

Location: OC Ballroom

Tuesday’s Women in Science Networking Lunch provides a compelling and fun program, and it is an excellent opportunity to network with current and soon-to-be colleagues and friends. This year’s event will present speaker Margaret Leinen.

Dr. Margart Leinen is Executive Director of the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute and is the founder and president of the Climate Response Fund, a nonprofit to foster discussion of climate engineering research and to decrease the risk that these techniques might be called on or deployed before they are adequately understood and regulated. Previously, she spent two years as the chief science officer of Climos, Inc., and prior to these posts in the non-profit and private sectors, Leinen served at the National Science Foundation. Much of Leinen’s work at the NSF involved identifying new major research infrastructure needs, advancing those needs and successfully defending $1 billion in initiatives to the National Science Board for subsequent funding by Congress. 

Leinen’s career includes academic leadership at the University of Rhode Island, both as the vice provost for marine and environmental programs and as dean of the Graduate School of Oceanography.  She received her doctorate in oceanography from the University of Rhode Island, her Master of Science in geological oceanography from Oregon State University and her Bachelor of Science in geology from the University of Illinois.  (Source: FAU Media Release, Dec 2010)

CERF Happy Hour

Sponsored by YSI Incorporated

Date and Time: Tuesday, 8 November, 5:00 – 7:00 pm

Location: OC Exhibit Hall

YSI, Inc. invites you to enjoy drinks and snacks while you check out the posters; visit the exhibitors; rendezvous with friends and colleagues for this evening’s activities.

CERF Business Meeting

Date and Time: Tuesday, 8 November, 6:30 – 8:00 pm

Location: OC – Room 103A

Please stop by to learn about what is happening within CERF and to welcome CERF’s 2011-2013 administration.

WEDNESDAY

“CERF the Turf” 2011 5K Fun Run/Walk

Date and Time: Wednesday, 9 November, 7:00 – 9:00 am
(Runners assemble at Hilton Clocktower on the beach beginning at 6:30 am)

Location: Hilton Beachfront

CERF is hosting a 5K (3.1 mile) Fun Run/Walk along the beach on Wednesday morning at the Hilton beachfront, 7:00 am. Pre-registration is encouraged.  All paid participants will get a unique keepsake and water.  Special prizes will be awarded for the first place finishers from each Affiliate Society and the first three male and female finishers in each of four categories: Zoea (up to age 29), Megalopae (30-39), Juveniles (40-49), and Adults (50+).

Science for Community Leaders Special Poster Session and CERF Happy Hour

In conjunction with Daytona Beach Museum of Arts and Sciences

Date and Time: Wednesday, 9 November, 5:30 – 7:00 pm

Location: OC Exhibit Hall

New at CERF 2011, Science for Community Leaders (SCL) will provide a venue to encourage interaction between our conference attendees, the Daytona Beach Museum of Arts and Sciences membership, and other community leaders. Community leaders will be invited to talk with our conference attendees in an informal social setting, which will be contained within the main poster hall. Be there whether presenting an SCL poster or not!

While the invitees would be initially welcomed at the special poster area, they would also be encouraged to view posters throughout the poster hall and talk to all of the presenters available that evening. So, even if you are not participating directly in the special poster session, we encourage you to show-off your research when the community leaders tour the poster hall.

CERF 2011 Student Pub Night

Date and Time: Wednesday, 9 November, 9:00 pm – ???

Location: Mai Tai Bar

Web site: http://www.maitaibar.com/daytona-beach/about.php

Come down to the Mai Tai Bar to relax and mix with other students in a casual setting. (Any non-student CERF attendees also are welcome!) 

Located in the Ocean Walk Shoppes next to the CERF headquarters hotel, Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort.

THURSDAY

Student Awards Presentations and Farewell Party

Date and Time: Thursday, 10 November, 5:30 – 8:30 pm

Location: OC - Ballroom

Light hors d’oeuvres and bar. Student Presentation Awards and Carbon Neutral check presentation.  Throughout this week our volunteer judges evaluated most of the student oral and poster presentations.  Tonight, the highest-ranking students receive monetary awards and recognition for their exceptional work. Come support the students, boogie down and say farewell until CERF 2013 in San Diego, California!

Other Special Events, Workshops, and Town Halls

Town Hall Meeting: NOAA’s 5-Year Research Plan (2013-2017)

Date and Time:            Tuesday, 8 November 2011, 12:00 - 1:30 pm

Location:            OC – 101A

With NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP) completed, NOAA is developing its 5-Year Research Plan (2013-2017) and is seeking input from the broader scientific community. This town hall will review the overarching scientific challenges in the NGSP and describe efforts to identify associated needs and gaps. We seek participants’ input so NOAA can produce a Research Plan that takes into account the perspectives and capabilities of the extramural oceanic and atmospheric science community.

Town Hall Meeting: Forecasting Scenarios for Estuarine and Coastal Management: Can we focus the crystal ball?

Moderators: Jim Fitzpatrick (HDR -| HydroQual), Michael Kemp (UMCES), and Elizabeth Turner (NOAA)

Date and Time:            Tuesday, 8 November 2011, 5:00 pm

Location:            OC – 101A

This "town-hall meeting" will be a facilitated discussion of scenario-type modeling for estuarine and coastal management applications.  Our goal is to identify existing and future predictive information needs of estuarine and coastal water quality and natural resource managers and policymakers so that they can be translated into operational criteria for scenario-based forecasts.  Examples of issues to be addressed are:

·      What types of scenario-type models are needed?

·      Uncertainty - how can uncertainties and model assumptions be specified and articulated with model results?

·      Hindcasting-how can simulation tests of ecosystem responses to past management actions be used to improve scenario forecasts?

Workshop: Explore the Ocean in Google Earth

Date and Time:             Tuesday, 8 November 2011, 5:00 - 7:00 pm

Location:            OC – 102C

During this interactive session, Curator Charlotte Vick will showcase how to use Google Earth tools, places and tours. She will guide you through some of the top ocean layers, provide illustrations of creative use of Google Earth and explain how organizations and individuals upload stories for educational and mission outreach.  There will be active Q&A on how to use Google Earth for strategic advantage on your own website and how to leverage and repurpose your existing content to further your goals. For the best experience, laptops are suggested but not necessary.

Event: Reception and Reunion for the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography’s 50^th Anniversary

Date and Time:  Tuesday, 8 November 2011, 8:00 pm

Location: Hilton - Room TBD

2011 marks the 50^th Anniversary of the establishment of the GSO! Help us celebrate even if you can’t come to Rhode Island. Whether you were in the first class that entered GSO or you are presently a graduate student there, we want YOU to come enjoy some food and beverages, look at old photos, catch up with friends and introduce yourself to new colleagues. Join us Tuesday, 8 November, at 8:00 pm at the Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Hotel.

Event: LSU SC&E 10th Anniversary Reunion for Alumni, Faculty, Students, and Staff
Date and Time:  Wednesday, 9 November 2011, 7:00 pm

Location: Hilton - Room TBD

LSU School of the Coast & Environment invites all alumni, faculty, students, and staff—past and present—to laissez les bons temps rouler at the School’s 10th Anniversary event.  Come share Cajun food and music (guaranteed to have you saying Ca c'est bon!) as we toast the School’s anniversary and celebrate our biggest success stories—our graduates! Be sure to stop by the LSU SC&E booth in the exhibition area to pick up your ticket or email your ticket request in advance to mberg41@lsu.edu.

Valuing Ecosystem Services, Assessing Choices

William Nuttle, Organizer for CERF 2011 Synthesis Sessions 

wnuttle@eco-hydrology.com

Ecosystem services are the benefits that people receive from the environment. For many ecologists, ecosystem services also might be the long-awaited key to sustainability. How can we best incorporate the goal of a healthy, sustainable environment into decision-making? The solution popularized by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment involves calculating the economic value of benefits currently provided by the ecosystem.

This solution would revolutionize the current approach to environmental management. Established 40 years ago, in response to alarm over the growing environmental consequences of an expanding human population and industrial development, the current approach attempts to limit impacts. Various regulations on human activities construct protective firewalls to limit impacts on key environmental resources. Two generations have passed, and people now chafe against these restrictions, apparently either unaware or discounting the benefits they are intended to provide.

The new management approach requires decision-makers and stakeholders to make a full accounting of these benefits and weigh the costs of reduced ecosystem services against the anticipated benefits of proposed development. A new book edited by three alumni of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is the most recent step in advancing this program. Natural Capital: Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services advances the idea of ecosystem services further along the gradient from concept into application. To do this, the editors assemble a useful guide that combines instruction in methods of analysis with case studies to illustrate their application.

On topics of interest to the CERF membership, the application of ecosystem services to coastal management is not as well developed as for some terrestrial ecosystems. Most elements of coastal and marine ecosystems lie hidden below the water, and key attributes related to ecosystem services are more variable in time and space than in on land. Then, there is the fact that many threats to coastal ecosystems have their source in the connected watershed, requiring an approach to management that integrates terrestrial and aquatic domains. Discussion of regional planning in Puget Sound illustrates how ecosystem services can be used to support decision-making, but one wonders if this is only because the state legislature took the first revolutionary step of mandating use of an ecosystem-level approach to management.

Still, this is the direction in which coastal management is moving. Besides this book, there a number of resources emerging on the web to support this change in management approach. The Marine Ecosystem Services Partnership (MESP), which advertises itself as a virtual center for information and communication on human uses of marine ecosystems, provides an online database of ecosystem service valuations that is global in scope. The Hart Research Institute, at Texas A&M University, provides an online database of ecosystem services focused on the Gulf of Mexico.

At some point it all comes down to money, and this is both the strength and weakness of this revolution in coastal management. It is a strength because, just as water is the universal solvent, money is pretty close to being the universal metric in planning. Kareiva et al. (2010) make the claim that "Scientific models move us from abstract, conceptual arguments about the importance of ecosystem services to specific quantification of the level, value and spatial distribution of ecosystem service benefits." By “value,” this means monetary value, most often.

Its weakness derives from the inherent fickleness of human nature. Methods of estimating the value of ecosystem services described in this book, and elsewhere, treat value as if it is an intrinsic property of components of the ecosystem, as if we were counting up the calories or grams of fat contributed to a dish by each of its ingredients. However, as anyone knows who has ever tried to understand the logic of house prices, ultimately value is defined by the price that a buyer is willing to pay.

Critics of ecosystem valuation raise the issue of biases and inequities that lie hidden in the various valuation methods and in the “objective” weighing of benefits and costs. For example, Wegner and Pascual (2011) offer a wide-ranging critique of cost-benefit analysis based on the valuation of ecosystem services. Problems arise where ever the actual behavior of people deviates from the economic ideal of the rational actor. People are susceptible to having their independent judgement hijacked by group-think tendencies; many are ignorant of how ecosystems work; and wealth affects a person's willingness to pay for certain ecosystem services relative to others. Value is not intrinsic to the ecosystem; it is also contingent on the circumstances of the buyers of ecosystem services, i.e. stakeholders.

The conclusion reached by both sides, the authors in Kareiva et al. (2011) on one and Wegner and Pascual (2011) on the other, is that the valuation of ecosystem services is useful as a guide to decision-making, but it is not the whole story. Scientific models and benefit-cost analysis do not substitute for the messy process of engaging stakeholders, forging a shared vision of the ecosystem, and articulating the possibilities for the future. Let's not get too distracted by the methodological question of how to assign a value to ecosystem services. Rather, let's concentrate on the real task of helping people assess the choices available to them.

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions and Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

References:
Kareiva, P., H. Tallis, T.H. Ricketts, G.C. Daily, and S. Polasky, 2011. Natural Capital: Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Wegner, G. and U. Pascual, 2011. Cost-benefit analysis in the context of ecosystem services for human well-being: a multidisciplinary critique. Global Environmental Change 21:492-504.

All You Need to Know About Offshore Wind Farms

A primer on planning, design and potential impacts of offshore wind farms is available from the Georgia Coastal Research Council (GCRC). The GCRC provides a mechanism for improved scientific exchange between coastal scientists and decision makers. The objective is to promote the incorporation of best-available scientific information into State and local resource management. Scientists, managers and decision-makers will find the information in this whitepaper interesting and useful.

The whitepaper provides background about offshore wind energy. The specific focus is on potential development in Georgia coastal waters, but the information gathered provides a current overview of this emerging new use of coastal waters.

• Part I is an introduction to the use of offshore wind as a renewable energy source; 
• Part II provides an overview of the components of a wind installation; 
• Part III discusses factors that are considered in siting a wind facility; 
• Part IV describes the environmental considerations associated with such a project; 
• Part V describes planning tools and ongoing offshore wind energy initiatives.

This post relates to Topic 6: Management challenges to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.

References:
Laporte, C. and M. Alber. 2011. Offshore Wind Energy: Considerations for Georgia. Prepared by the Georgia Coastal Research Council, for the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Coastal Resources Division. 41 pages.

Other sources of information on wind power in the southeast US: http://www.gcrc.uga.edu/SARRP/regional_resources.htm

Figure credit:http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/workshops/2005_summit/musial.pdf

Canadian Study Calculates Costs of Global Change to Coastal Communities

A new study, Paying the Price: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Canada, calculates the increasing costs from the impacts of climate change in Canada over the period 2020 through 2050.  The full report looks at impacts to the national economy. Special attention is given to forestry, coasts, ecosystems and human health.

Coastal communities are already at risk from a variety of natural hazards.  The annual cost of damages due to inundation, erosion, and storm surge are, to a certain extent, simply part of living along the coast.  This study estimates the year-to-year increase in these costs based on the anticipated impacts of global climate change - accelerated rates of sea level rise and changes in the frequency and intensity of storms.

• By the 2050s, in a given year, between 33,000 and 38,000 square kilometres (km2) of land will be at risk of flooding, with between 2,000 and 7,000 km2 of this area at risk due to climate change
• Impacts are uneven across regions.
• By the 2050s, in any given year, 16,000 to 28,000 dwellings will be at risk of permanent flooding from sea-level rise and temporary flooding from storm surges.
• The majority of dwellings at risk are in British Columbia — about 8,900 to 18,700 by the 2050s.

This post relates to Topic 2: Human dimensions and Topic 4: Baseline change to be discussed during the Synthesis Sessions at CERF 2011.